Friday, May 21, 2010

Race Analysis

Mr. Fantasy returns to action on Saturday in the $100,000 Decathalon Stakes at Monmouth. The race only drew 7 horses, and this looks like a solid spot to get our colt back into the winner's circle.
1. Lit'sgoodlookngray- This veteran returned to the races in April for the first time since October. He is a former claimer, but has also faired decently in some small sprint stakes in California. He likely needed that last race, but will need to show step up in a big way to be competitive. His numbers last year were solid, but many of those races were on synthetic surfaces. If he runs to last year's form, expect him to have a stalking trip.
2. Tommy's Memory- This lightly raced gelding is exiting a pretty nice win in an overnight restricted stake at Tampa last month. He was won four of five career starts, and has some talent, but this is his first start against open stakes company. He ran a big number last time out, and if he improves just a little bit he has a chance to win in here. Expect him to be just off the frontrunners.
3. Congressional Page- Another lightly raced horse, this Mike Trombetta trainee is exiting a second place finish in the Commonwealth (G2) at Keeneland in April. He has strong together some solid efforts this winter in graded stakes races, but has been unable to make it to the winner's circle. The cut back to six furlongs and the drop down to ungraded stakes company may be exactly what he needs. He has been working well since his last start, but his last two pace figures have been slightly below others in here. He is another who will likely lay just off the leaders.
4. Mannington- This is a consistent horse who is looking for his third straight win. He is coming off a win in a Florida bred stake at Gulfstream in March. He is fresh entering this start, but only has two works to his name since that start, so he may not be completely cranked up. There is no doubt he is fast, but some may question if he is classy enough to beat open stakes horses. Earlier this year he ran for a 40k claiming tag.
5. Go Go Shoot- This horse won two stakes over this surface last year. However, he has not run since November. This is his first start for Todd Pletcher. He ran some huge numbers last year, and if he runs anywhere close to those figures, he will be very tough. He likes Monmouth, and has been working well over the strip. He will likely be vying for the lead early with Mannington and Mr. Fantasy.
6. Mr. Fantasy- Our colt has been training well over the Monmouth surface. Many horses improve quite a bit third time off the layoff. He has run two pretty solid races, and if improves off his Billy Redocat effort, he has a big chance in here. We are fortunate that he drew toward the outside of the gate, so he will not have to stand for very long. Eddie Castro is an excellent jockey, and perennially at the top of the standings each year at Monmouth. The cut back to 6 furlongs should certainly help us. There is quite a bit of speed in this race, so we are hopeful that we do not get caught in too tepid of a speed duel. We know Mr. Fantasy loves the lead early on, but we do not want to go too fast early. Mannington and Go Go Shoot will likely be with us early, but we are fortunate that we are on the outside and will not be pinned on the rail. Monmouth is also said to be a speed favoring racetrack.
7. At The Disco- This horse is coming off an overnight stakes win, but that came back in November at the Meadowlands. He won that race on the lead, but in most of his races he is a few lengths off the pace. He won two stakes at Monmouth last year, but both of those were going long. He only has two published works since that last race, so he is likely not fully cranked up for this race.

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